Not every uncertain environment requires the same kind of planning. The question is not whether goals are good or bad. The question is whether the conditions support a fixed destination.
I use three questions.
1. How certain is the path?
Can you see the major steps from here to there? If the work is primarily execution, a destination can help. If step four depends on what you learn at step three, the plan needs room to change.
2. How stable is the terrain?
Will the conditions remain reasonably consistent until you arrive? A twelve-week training plan may have stable enough terrain. A five-year technology strategy may not.
3. Are you already the person—or organization—that finishes this?
If the identity gap is small, execute. If the goal requires a fundamentally different set of behaviours, capabilities, or standards, becoming is part of the strategy.
Why This Matters for Leaders
Put certainty of path and stability of terrain together and four territories emerge.
Certain path, stable terrain: let the destination lead.
Certain path, shifting terrain: use destinations as short tests.
A Practical Way to Apply the Idea
Uncertain path, stable terrain: use direction and deliberate learning.
Uncertain path, shifting terrain: Wayfind. Hold the direction and shorten the distance between action and feedback.
The mistake is applying one planning system everywhere.
The strongest leaders match the planning method to the conditions.
Before your next strategy session, do not start by asking, “What is the goal?”
Ask, “What kind of terrain are we actually in?”.
A SIMPLE LEADERSHIP PRACTICE
Use the question or framework in the next real decision, team conversation, or planning session. The objective is not to admire the idea. It is to create information about the work while the cost of learning is still small.
COMMON MISTAKES
- Turning the idea into a slogan without changing a behaviour, meeting, decision rule, or feedback loop.
- Scaling a solution before the team has learned whether it addresses the root friction.
- Confusing adaptability with a lack of standards. Values, safety, ethics, and other true anchors still require clarity.
- Waiting for complete certainty when the next responsible action is reversible and can create better information.
Are fixed goals bad during uncertainty?
No. Fixed goals work well when the path is reasonably clear and the terrain is stable. The problem is using the same goal system in every environment.
What is the difference between direction and destination?
A destination is a fixed endpoint. A direction is a heading that guides decisions while leaving room to adapt the route.
When should a leader revise a goal?
When the assumptions supporting the destination materially change or the metric begins to undermine the direction it was meant to serve.
RELATED RESOURCES
- Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Why Action Creates Clarity
- Adaptive Identity: Why Leaders Must Outgrow the Person Who Made the Plan
- How to Lead Through Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Leaders